Nobody can precisely predict the future. But, with a basic understanding of history, economics, business cycles, interest rates and public policy (oh, and political ideology), one can pretty confidently spot and analyze trends. Trends are a fairly constant thing until they “aren’t” of course — but for a clear economic trend to stop, it generally takes a catalyst, an event, an election, a true “sea change” in attitude, or maybe even just a new leader with common (fiscal) sense.
MoCo’s trends (and basically the state of Maryland’s) are pretty easy to spot, and to analyze, especially on a macro-economic level. They’ve been ongoing for years and years. You can zoom “out” or zoom “in”… the trend is almost always the same (source of the image below is https://eig.org/high-earners-migration/):
MoCo keeps losing adjusted gross income to other places… i.e. it keeps losing the higher-earning households who fund most of the County Council’s insane fiscal profligacy. It is an erosion of a crucial part of the County’s tax base. The County’s tax base is what funds MCPS, the parks, the police.
If MoCo had a robust private sector, flush with new investment and jobs, then maybe some wealthier households moving to other states wouldn’t be as much of a hit. But MoCo does not. We can debate why not… maybe another trip to India or Vietnam is all it will take to bring in some “jobs” and additional income to tax? Or maybe not.
Side note: isn’t it curious that the County Exec flies across the world to attract “capital” instead of just trying to attract the plethora of domestically-based life-science and biotech companies right here in the United States?
Anyways, the trends are clear on the economic and budget front. More stagnation. There will be no 2024 “boom” and any short-lived “boost” is going to be swallowed up by large impending costs coming from the state of MD (which is in a budget deficit) and WMATA (metro) which is badly underwater and needs funding to survive. And, the trends are clear on the housing stock / rental front as well. So-called “rent control” regulations county-wide pushed by ideologues will make affordability worse for thousands. MoCo will see less rental real-estate built, and it will definitely see a lot of potential rental stock converted to condos and sold. Frederick County landlords, and probably their politicians, are no doubt very, very happy about this particular trend – and their coming fiscal future.
Other trends pointing to MoCo’s stagnation and decline are very likely to continue as well. Crime will continue to nudge upwards, immigration volume that overwhelms public services (much of it unlawful, that is, breaking U.S. law) continues apace. And this isn’t to pin MoCo’s economic decline on immigrants… but the openly welcomed law-breaking by County officials does indeed create a volume issue and a government stretched way too thin to perform even the basics effectively. There are reports circulating that the Bethesda-area Hyatt Regency hosts several floors, right now, of migrants. (Yes, this is an older review / post from TripAdvisor.com about the hotel, but would anyone be surprised, at all, to see more such anecdotes coming soon in 2024?):
And then of course there is MCPS performance. Which way will it trend, going forward? Do the signs point to a robust future recovery or more uneven performance and unaccountable principals / administrators? It took a Washington Post investigation and dozens of witnesses to get accountability on a serial harasser in power in 2023. Would you place even odds on MCPS becoming a functioning, top-performing public school system under this Board of Education?
The good news is that the trends you’ve witnessed in MoCo, all the issues you’ve been told can be solved with simply more and more of your money and wealth and freedom, can be reversed. It just takes a bit of courage and new policies… oh, and a Clean Slate of politicians and community leaders. That’s where CleanSlate.com and others come into play, so stay tuned.
Happy New Year.
